When Will KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON be streaming on Apple TV+? Our Forecast!

Courtesy Apple Studios

It’s been gratifying to see KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON thrive in theaters. When Apple announced Martin Scorsese’s crime thriller would receive a theatrical exclusive window, everyone seemed relieved. Scorsese’s first proper theatrical release since 2016’s Silence! Even Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon’s lead and arguably one of the last bankable stars in Hollywood, hasn’t had a true theatrical release since 2019.

So with the film’s second weekend behind us (with a worrying estimated 61% box-office dip), we thought the time was right to forecast when it might arrive on Apple TV+. Very little history to guide us here. But we have some breadcrumbs we’ll use to provide our estimate. Let’s break it down:

The Film: Killers of the Flower Moon

Director: Martin Scorsese

Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro, Jesse Plemons, Lily Gladstone, Tantoo Cardinal, Cara Jade Myers, JaNae Collins, Jillian Dion, William Belleau, Louis Cancelmi, Tatanka Means, Michael Abbott Jr., Pat Healy, Scott Shepherd, Jason Isbell, Sturgill Simpson

Theatrical Opening Date: October 20th, 2023

Studio: Apple Studios, Paramount Pictures (Distributor)

The Forecast: Since KOTFM’s release date was announced in March, there’s been much speculation on when Apple would release the film on its Apple TV+ platform. Let’s look at some of the theories:

• Theory #1: KOTFM will arrive on Apple TV+ in time for Thanksgiving. A 30-day theatrical exclusive window is plenty these days, and is in line with what distributor Paramount Pictures schedules for its non-Tom Cruise releases (albeit on PVOD, not SVOD).

  • Our Take: No way. Thanksgiving weekend is already crowded with high-profile new releases. OPPENHEIMER on PVOD, BARBIE likely (though not confirmed) on Max. And most importantly, Apple’s own NAPOLEON arrives in theaters. The last thing they need is to cannibalize their own audience. Why go out to see a 2.5-hour historical epic when you can stay home and watch a 3.5-hour historical epic?

• Theory #2: KOTFM will arrive on Apple TV+ in early December. It’s been widely reported that Apple and the filmmakers have agreed on a minimal 45-day exclusive theatrical window. An early December release gives the film at least six weekends to earn back some of its $200M production budget.

  • Our Take: This feels the most plausible to us. Apple recently announced they’ll be increasing their subscription price from $6.99/mo to $9.99/mo. Having a premium release like KOTFM is essential to keeping subscribers from churning out. Apple will presumably then have Napoleon hit their platform in early January 2024, again to keep subscribers from canceling.

  • One breadcrumb that has us leaning towards this scenario: Apple recently quietly moved up the premiere date of the new season of their Gary Oldman show Slow Horses. Previously announced to debut on Friday, December 1st, it is now premiering on Wednesday, November 29th. Was it moved to make room for KOTFM? That would put it under a 45-day window…but we thought it was an interesting shift.

• Theory #3: KOTFM will arrive on Apple TV+ near Christmas. With critics awards and year-end-best lists likely including the film prominently, Apple will want to make an event of its release at a time when audiences (and Oscar voters) are catching up with the films they missed.

  • Our Take: Certainly a possibility. As an awards season strategy, there’s definitely an argument for it. But this weekend’s steep box-office drop seems to indicate KOTFM won’t have Oppenheimer-style longevity in theaters. And if the film loses steam in the cultural conversation, it could hurt its awards chances. And while awards are surely an important part of Apple’s strategy, attracting subscribers and reducing churn is a priority. And you have to have the film on the platform to do that.

Those are the three theories we’re positing. And as we said, we’re leaning towards the second. That Slow Horses date shift really has us wanting to go out on a limb and predict December 1st, but we don’t have the guts.

Our Estimate:

Apple TV+ Release Date: December 8th, 2023