Lionsgate launches the action sequel EXPEND4BLES in 3518 the4ters this weekend, so we thought we’d do some forecasting and estimate when the film might be available for VOD/digital streaming. Let’s break it down:

The Film: Expend4bles (2023)

Director: Scott Waugh

Starring: Sylvester Stallone, Jason Statham, 50 Cent, Megan Fox, Dolph Lundgren, Tony Jaa, Andy Garcia, Iko Uwais, Randy Couture

Theatrical Opening Date: September 22, 2023

The Studio: Lionsgate

The Forecast: It’s been nine years since the last installment of The Expendables, and none of us have gotten any younger since. The franchise has always appealed to an older demographic, and that demographic has been the least likely to go to theaters post-pandemic. So while we expect The Expend4bles (ug…that 4) to underperform at the box-office, it’ll likely have a robust PVOD/Home Video afterlife.

Lionsgate has not been shy about collapsing their theatrical windows. While not quite as aggressive as Universal’s 17-day turnaround, they have been relatively consistent with their 2023 slate. Let’s look at the comps:

• PLANE

  • In Theaters: January 13, 2023

  • PVOD: February 3, 2023 (21 days post-theatrical)

  • Starz: July 12, 2023 (180 days post-theatrical)

• OPERATION FORTUNE: RUSE DE GUERRE

  • In Theaters: March 3, 2023

  • PVOD: March 21, 2023 (18 days)

  • Starz: August 30, 2023 (180 days)

• JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 4

  • In Theaters: March 24, 2023

  • PVOD: May 23, 2023 (60 days)

  • Starz: September 15, 2023 (175 days)

• SISU

  • In Theaters: April 28, 2023

  • PVOD: May 16, 2023 (18 days)

  • Starz: September 29, 2023 (154 days)

So John Wick is clearly the outlier…very likely because it was a massive hit for the studio. We don’t imagine Lionsgate has the same expectations for Expend4bles. In fact, the title has already been pre-order priced at $24.99, which almost always indicates a shortened PVOD window.

Lionsgate’s last few PVOD releases (THE BLACKENING, JOY RIDE, COBWEB) have all arrived on digital on a Friday. We think Expend4bles will follow suit.

Our Estimate (Just for fun):

PVOD Release Date: October 13, 2023

Starz Release Date: March 20, 2024

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