The Film: Oppenheimer (2023)

Director: Christopher Nolan

Starring: Cillian Murphy, Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Robert Downey Jr., Florence Pugh, Josh Harnett, Casey Affleck, Rami Malek, Kenneth Branagh

Opening Date: July 21, 2023 (Wide)

The Studio: Universal Pictures

The Forecast: When Christopher Nolan decided to part ways with his longtime studio Warner Brothers, one of the major factors was the studio’s decision to release their 2021 slate day-and-date on (then named) HBO Max. Shopping his next project, his terms dictated a minimum 100-day theatrical exclusive window.

It’s notable that Universal, who has been the most experimental and aggressive in shortening exclusive theatrical windows, won the bidding for OPPENHEIMER in September 2021. Their continued commitment to 17-day (for titles grossing under $50M opening weekend) or 30-day (for titles grossing over $50M) theatrical windows indicates they must have confidence PVOD (Premium Video On Demand) does not cannibalize box-office revenue. This New York Times article lays it out nicely.

So a 100-day theatrical exclusive window is the minimum we can expect. Could it be longer? With the film’s incredible box-office success and sterling Oscar prospects, there’s certainly a scenario where Universal keeps the event (IMAX, Barbenheimer) aura around the film chugging along through the fall. With studios pushing many major releases into 2024, OPPENHEIMER could take advantage of a thin 4Q schedule.

But we’re thinking it’ll be too irresistible for Universal to wait for that sweet PVOD money. It will likely be on par with THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE in terms of PVOD revenue ($75M), and will also be used as a major acquisitions driver for Peacock during the holidays. There’s no reason a concurrent IMAX re-release couldn’t happen to help goose its Oscar campaign.

Our Estimate (Just for fun…please don’t yell at us if/when we’re wrong)

PVOD Release Date: Late October/Early November (October 31st is 100 days post theatrical launch…so if we had to pick a date…)

Peacock Release Date: Late December