Ridley Scott’s historical epic NAPOLEON continues to perform well at the box-office, both domestically and especially internationally. With a reported production budget of $200, it’s unlikely the film will break even on box-office alone. So when will Napoleon be available for streaming? Let’s break it down:

The Film: Napoleon (2023)

Director: Ridley Scott

Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Vanessa Kirby, Tahar Rahim, Rupert Everett, Mark Bonnar, Paul Rhys, Ben Miles, Riana Duce, Edouard Philipponnat, Miles Jupp, John Hollingworth, Youssef Kerkour, Davide Tucci, Matthew Needham, Jannis Niewöhner

Theatrical Opening Date: November 22, 2023 (Wide)

Studio: Apple Studios/Sony Pictures

The Forecast: First and foremost, let’s be honest. Apple is one of the richest corporations in the world. It can afford to spend $200M on films like Napoleon and Killers of the Flower Moon and treat them as marketing expenses for the Apple TV+ platform. So it’s commendable they’ve made a commitment to give their higher profile films exclusive theatrical runs.

And when it was revealed Killers of the Flower Moon would first go to PVOD, rather than straight to Apple TV+, their strategy came in to clearer focus. Apple TV+ subscribers would either have to be patient, or shell out $24.99/$19.99 to buy/rent the film. It seems to be working. Since its release last week, Killers of the Flower Moon has been the #1 film on iTunes Top Movie chart.

So KOTFM is really our only valuable comp for Napoleon. Here’s that film’s release pattern:

• KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

  • In Theaters: October 20, 2023 (Wide)

  • PVOD Release Date: December 5, 2023 (45 Days)

  • SVOD Release Date: TBA

We’re forecasting Napoleon will follow in KOTFM’s footsteps and maintain the 45-day exclusive theatrical window. Actually, we’re predicting a 47-day window, since it opened on a Wednesday. We’re also forecasting a PVOD-first strategy.

As for when it’ll hit Apple TV+, it’s hard to predict accurately, as we don’t have the KOTFM comp on that yet. But forecasting isn’t for wimps…so we’ll throw out a date. We have a hunch Apple will want to drive eyeballs to their platform for the premiere of their big new series Masters of the Air, which is scheduled to premiere on 1/26.

Our Estimate (Just For Fun):

PVOD Release Date: January 9, 2024

Apple TV+ Release Date: January 26, 2024