The Film: Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One (2023)

Director: Christopher McQuarrie

Starring: Tom Cruise, Simon Pegg, Hayley Atwell, Ving Rhames, Rebecca Ferguson, Vanessa Kirby, Henry Czerny

Opening Date: July 12, 2023 (Wide)

The Studio: Paramount

The Forecast: In 2022, Tom Cruise saved the movies. TOP GUN: MAVERICK opened in May of last year, and moviegoers who hadn’t yet ventured out to theaters in the COVID era decided this film was a great reason to return. For most, the film delivered. It reminded people why they loved going to the movies. And it earned nearly $1.5 billion at the box-office globally.

The film, crucially, was also not made available for streaming for nearly three months. This was all the evidence the haters of collapsing theatrical windows needed. If you train audiences to expect a film to be available at home within a few weeks, they won’t bother going to the theater. TOP GUN: MAVERICK was proof that theatrical exclusivity was the key to a films box-office value.

A year later, it felt certain that Tom Cruise would dominate the summer again. The buzz around M:I 7 was solid. Cruise was selling the hell out of it. The savior of the movies couldn’t fail. But soon, a few cracks in the armor started to appear. Reports of Cruise calling IMAX theaters, pleading for longer runs. The release date was moved up two days. And the phenomenon of Barbenheimer was starting to cast a huge shadow.

The shadow was (is) huge. BARBIE and OPPENHEIMER have completely dominated the late-July box-office, leaving Cruise and M:I 7 with disappointing worldwide totals. It’s one of the great surprises of the summer, as Cruise felt invincible. But here we are.

So where does that leave M:I 7’s streaming prospects? Well…on the day of the film’s release, a digital launch date appeared on Prime Video…

October 10th is a 90-day theatrical exclusive. Although the date has since been removed, we feel confident the film will have a similar window as TOP GUN: MAVERICK.

Our Estimate (Just for fun, please don’t yell at us if/when we’re wrong)

PVOD Release Date: October 10, 2023

Paramount+ Release Date: January 2024