Martin Scorsese’s KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON made its streaming debut today, but it wasn’t on the platform most were expecting. Certainly not us. Conventional wisdom was that the film would go straight to the Apple TV+ platform after its traditional theatrical-exclusive window. Instead, it was made available as a PVOD (Premium Video on Demand) release, with an option to either buy ($24.99) or rent ($19.99).

It was a signal that Apple’s strategy would be more traditional, a return to the patient model of theatrical (it enjoyed a 45-day exclusive window) to VOD/digital, and then finally SVOD (Subscription Video on Demand). It seems media companies are finally coming to their senses and realizing that rushing films to SVOD does damage in three ways:

1. It eliminates (or de-prioritizes) an important step in the revenue stream.

2. It encourages consumers to ‘wait until it’s free on streaming’, especially when that wait is shortened by a collapsed window.

3. It diminishes the perceived value of the films by having a majority of the audience not have to ‘pay’ for a rental or purchase. Sure, there’s a cost to subscribe to Apple TV+, or Disney+, or Max. But that isn’t a one-to-one transaction. Watching Encanto on Disney+ or The Batman on Max felt ‘free’.

So Apple’s approach was a signal that their subscribers would have to either pay up for a rental/purchase, or wait until the Apple TV+ launch. But how long will they have to wait? We don’t have the definitive answer yet, of course. But we are willing to forecast a few possibilities. Let’s break them down:

Option #1: December 22nd, 2023

• This option would be the generous approach. Having the film available for the holidays would give Apple TV+ subscribers their money’s worth at a time when many are settled in to catch-up on movies with their families. Rival streaming services are pulling out their big guns for the second half of December: Max has Barbie, Netflix has Rebel Moon and Maestro, Prime Video has Saltburn. Apple will need a big gun to compete in the streaming wars. We’re guessing 12/22 and not 12/15 because they’ve already scheduled THE FAMILY PLAN for 12/15, and it’s unlikely they’d double up on that date.

Option #2: January 12th, 2024

• This option would be the less generous, more conservative approach. But we’ve pinpointed this date for a couple of reasons. First, it’s when Killers of the Flower Moon’s initial PVOD schedule expires. On 1/12/24, it’ll likely be made available for purchase at $19.99, with a rental window of $5.99 two weeks later. This could be a natural time to launch on Apple TV+. Second, it’s a holiday weekend (MLK Day is 1/15), which is always an attractive time to launch a big title. Will Apple want to boost theatrical and PVOD by not conditioning their subscribers to ‘wait until it’s free on streaming’?

So these are the two dates we think are the most likely. It’s always fascinating to see how these media companies navigate the ever-changing streaming landscape. We’ll obviously post as soon as we get any concrete news or updates. If you have any theories or thoughts, let us know in the comments.

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